14 Dec 2023
Private polling seen by the St Albans Times shows Labour would win the new constituency of Harpenden and Berkhamsted, but the party seems to have given up the fight for the seat.
In recent communication to its members, Labour called the constituency a “non battleground seat”, as they began to select their election candidate. The same status also applies to neighbouring St Albans.
But telephone and online polling carried out between October 17 and November 29 asked 968 adults who they would vote for if there was a General Election the next day.
All results were weighted by demographics based on 2021 census data, to be representative of age, gender, education level and subregion in the constituency.
The results gave Labour a 4,000 vote lead with the Lib Dems and Tories neck and neck for second place. This poll suggests considerably better outcomes for Labour than models based on national polling.
Victoria Collins, Liberal Democrat parliamentary candidate for Harpenden and Berkhamsted, said Labour’s decision had made it a two-horse race between them and the Conservatives: “With our local health services at breaking point, local rivers being destroyed by sewage and many finding it harder and harder to make ends meet, people are saying loud and clear it’s time for change.
“Labour has bowed to the inevitable and admitted they cannot win here. The Liberal Democrats are on a winning streak here in Hertfordshire, as people send this government a clear message.
“As we’ve seen again over the last few days, the Conservative Party is too busy fighting among themselves to govern this country. They’re taking people here for granted and failing to deliver for our communities.
“Enough is enough. It’s time we had a local champion who can deliver the change we so desperately need here in Harpenden and Berkhamsted.”
Nigel Gardner, the Conservative candidate for Harpenden and Berkhamsted, said: ” I don’t think Labour has any of the answers the people of Harpenden so need.
“Look no further than their proposal to slam VAT on school fees. An ideological policy that will serve not only to punish local parents who sacrifice so much to pay for their children’s education, but also increase pressure on our already over-subscribed top local state schools. Old style Labour ideology.
“Voting Lib Dem will have only one outcome – propping up Starmer and his plans for a £28 billion unfunded spending spree. And that will mean higher taxes for every family in Harpenden.
“They call it the Green Prosperity Plan but underneath it’s the same old red.”
