06 Aug 2024
In the General Election, a post-polling analysis of 35,000 voters found the Conservative vote was only 8%, whereas 9.5% of young voters supported Reform and almost 18% voted Green.
This is remarkable, not because of the young voting Reform or Green. The popularity of right-wing insurgent movements has been seen all over Europe, with the young expressing their economic discontent in the ballot box, and the Green Party has long been popular amongst the young.
It is remarkable because of the collapse of the Conservative vote from 30% in 2010.
A YouGov survey of 2,182 adults found similar results. Conservatives had a vote share of 7% and Labour 42% amongst the young. Less than half of young adults are voting for major parties, instead, their votes are being split between the smaller groups. This is worrying for Labour, particularly if the trend continues, but disastrous for the Tories.
Nigel Gardner, the Conservative Parliamentary candidate for Harpenden and Berkhamsted, noted this trend in a recent article in Conservative Home, Britain’s leading independent conservative news and analysis site.
He said that of the 16,574 votes he got, over 2,800 will not vote Tory at the next election, not because or any policy or scandal, but because they will be dead.
Nigel pointed out that Focaldata predict that 17% (1 in 6) of current Tory voters will have died by the time of the next election. Given that Labour is expected to gain around 300,000 votes as the next cohort turns 18, and even more if the voting age is reduced, this means that the Conservative Party will lose another 34 seats at the next election, taking it below 100.
He believes that the reason the young have turned away from Conservatism is economic. Conservatives have been obsessed by issues they don’t care about and have failed to build an economic structure that works for them.
Effectively, he says many younger voters want what their parents and grandparents had, their own homes, lower taxes and less government interference. They are ‘shy capitalists’.
Nationally, the Conservatives are preoccupied with their current leadership election and any thoughts of policy seem to be on the back burner until the new leader is announced on November 2.
So what are the local Conservatives doing for the under-30s?
Local Conservative spokesperson, Mary Maynard, said: “Over the last few years, we have been particularly concerned about how we engage with the under-30s. We have found that many are passionate about policy issues, and we have supported them to take part in local politics.
“We have had several Councillors and candidates under 30 across the St Albans and Harpenden area and currently Matt Cowley represents us at both Harpenden Town Council and St Albans district council. I have attended events at schools and colleges and found that many students, particularly young men, have fairly Conservative views and are noticeably less left leaning than their teachers. In Harpenden a few years ago, one large group voted Margaret Thatcher as the most significant person of our time.
“However, the under-30s are facing enormous challenges socially and economically and it is clear from talking with them that they are becoming increasingly disenchanted by mainstream politics and politicians.”
James Spencer, who ran for the St Albans constituency, said he had noticed a tendency for Conservative voters to be older, but this was a trend he had seen become more profound since 2017.
So how can the party move forwards? “We have to rebuild trust in the party, that is the first objective.
“We lost the last election, not because people disagreed with the policies we’d implemented over the last 14 years, or even the policies we had put forward in the manifesto, we lost because the public no longer thought we were a credible party of government.
“Too many scandals, too many leadership battles, too much infighting, and a PM lasting for just 50 days, that’s what did it for us.
“The way we turn this around is by selecting a credible leader, one who can speak to all sections of society and who can re-build trust in our party and politics. I’m glad the party is taking it’s time to select a new leader, we’ve got one shot and we have to get it right.”
What can be done to attract new, younger voters? Personalities or politics, or both?
“A bit of both. Political parties gain strength both from their ideology and their leadership, and when those two are working in lockstep parties can win votes from across all ages.
“Conservative principles of low taxation, small government, personal freedoms, strong defence, environmental protection, and preservation of tradition, should appeal to all regardless of age. One of the many challenges we face over the coming years is how we communicate these values to new generations of voters.”
He feels the party also needs to regain its hold over the centre-right of the political spectrum in order to beat off the rise of Reform.
“I know it’s a cliche, but the Conservative Party is a broad church, and this is, in part, one of the reasons why the party is the oldest and one of the most successful in the democratic world. At the last election we opened up two electoral flanks and haemorrhaged votes to the centre and to the right. It’s clear that many either thought we were too right wing, or we weren’t right wing enough.
“Therefore for me, it’s not about moving one way or another, it is about proudly defending the centre-right ground, and clearly communicating the values that underpin the Conservative Party.”
And does that mean focusing more on different ways of campaigning, like social media, to appeal to the disillusioned 20-somethings who are attracted by Reform?
“No, if anything the old school methods are the best. Leaflets work (just ask the Lib Dems), as does door knocking – human interaction is so important.
“There is always the tenancy to think that to get to young voters everything has to be done online or on social media, but I don’t believe this for one second. If anything, social media is poisoning politics.”
Matt Cowley, who is in his mid-20s, is a representative of his generation in the local Conservative Party and was recently elected as a councillor at St Albans and district council.
When asked about how the Conservative Party can appeal to the under-30s, he said: “Young people are crying out for conservative values. Somewhere affordable to live, a community they can be proud to call home, a good job, the opportunity to raise a family.
“But after 14 years of Conservative government, they’ve lost faith in our ability to deliver those things – things which were basic expectations for previous generations now feel like unattainable ambitions.
“The Conservative Party needs to win back trust. We need to have honest conversations about some of the challenges we face and the trade-offs we might have to make. And we need to give young people back that hope that things can get better.
“Because things can only get better. And it falls on us a local Conservatives to show people that we’re serious on working with everyone in our community to deliver conservatism again- with affordable homes, good local jobs, beautiful communities. A place they can be proud to call home.”
It seems strange to hear a Conservative saying ‘things can only get better’, the New Labour anthem. However, Cllr Cowley wasn’t born when Tony Blair came to power and views New Labour as ancient history. Does he represent the beginning of a new type of Conservative Party?
