18 Jan 2024
The date for this year’s General Election has not even been set, but already pollsters are predicting annihilation for Conservative candidates in the district.
A new survey commissioned by the Conservative Britain Alliance from YouGov MRP, and published in the Daily Telegraph this week, has revealed a Labour landslide should the election take place now.
The poll quizzed 14,110 respondents between December 12 and January 4, and suggests Keir Starmer would secure a 120-seat majority, with the Liberal Democrats landing 48 constituencies and the Tories slumping to just 169.
It is the first poll to be commissioned since the new parliamentary constituency boundaries were finalised last year, which include the creation of the new Harpenden and Berkhamsted seat.
In St Albans, sitting MP Daisy Cooper is predicted to win more than 51 per cent share of the vote, up from the 50.1 per cent she received in 2019. Second place would be Conservative candidate James Spencer on 21 per cent, significantly down from the 39.2 per cent which Anne Main secured in the last General Election.
Daisy responded to the poll: “Under this Conservative government the country is gripped by a cost-of-living crisis, local people can’t get a GP appointment, and water companies are getting away with dumping sewage in our river. It’s no wonder people have had enough.
“It’s a privilege to serve as the MP for my home of St Albans and, no matter what the polls say, I won’t take a single vote for granted.
“The one thing we know for sure is that in St Albans, voters face a clear choice between another out-of-town out-of-touch Conservative, or me: a local Liberal Democrat who has shown St Albans the difference a hard-working MP can make.”
Rival James hasn’t written off the race yet though: “I’m always a bit sceptical of these national polls, as they very rarely take into context the many local factors which can impact on election results.
“Since being selected, I’ve been knocking on doors across the constituency, and what is coming across loud and clear is that residents are not happy with the way the Lib Dems are running St Albans.
“A budget deficit in the millions, no audited accounts, increased parking fees, the green bin tax, flogging off our heritage market assets on the cheap, a planning system named and shamed by the national Government – this is not a track record that the Lib Dems can be proud of.
“Disappointingly, our Lib Dem MP’s response to this failure is a deafening silence. Once again, the Lib Dems cannot be trusted to mark their own homework.
“As someone who is St Albans born and bred I am campaigning to be a truly local MP, fully committed to put the needs of my home city before party politics.”
Because of the boundary changes it is impossible to present a like-for-like comparison in Harpenden, but in 2019 Tory Bim Afolami took the seat of Hitchin and Harpenden with 47.1 per cent of the vote.
The YouGov poll shows a different story for the new seat of Harpenden and Berkhamsted, with the Liberal Democrats romping to victory with 38 per cent of the vote, and the Conservatives trailing behind on 30 per cent.
That’s bad news for their candidate Nigel Gardner, but a positive sign for the Liberal Democrats’ Victoria Collins.
She said this week: “This latest poll, which shows that the Liberal Democrats are the only party to beat the Conservatives in Harpenden and Berkhamsted, reflects what we’re hearing on the doorstep.
“Day-in-day-out residents are telling me they are fed up with the Conservatives and want to vote for a positive alternative. That’s why I’ve been campaigning relentlessly to reduce ambulance waiting times, tackle the cost of living crisis and stop sewage in our local chalk streams.
“In Harpenden and Berkhamsted the Liberal Democrats stormed the local elections in May, taking outright control of Harpenden and Dacorum council for the first time. The two recent by-election victories including a gain from the Conservatives in Harpenden Rural shows people are putting their trust in the Liberal Democrats.”
Nigel hit back: “The only poll that matters is the votes of the good people of Harpenden and Berkhamsted, and our beautiful villages, on election day – whenever that comes.
“What is clear from this poll and on the doorsteps is that there are many people who voted Conservative in the past who are not happy with the Government. And many who are undecided. I really want to try and reach out to them.
“Because the choice at the next election will be between going back to square one with Labour’s £28 billion a year in taxes because they have no plan for how to pay for their unfunded spending, Labour’s cuts to pension allowances, and Labour’s VAT on school fees. Or what I would like to see – which is middle ground common sense Conservatism with Rishi Sunak sticking to his plan that is starting to work – bringing lower taxes, real improvements to the NHS, and protecting our Green Belt. Voting in Labour, propped up by the Lib Dems, will I fear quickly lead to buyer’s remorse – as our wallets and bank accounts get mauled.”
