12 Jul 2024
So Labour wins, with the largest Labour majority since 1997, 64 per cent of seats, but a vote share of only 34 per cent, less than Corbyn in 2017.
The electors defenestrated the Tories, turning to the protest parties, Reform and the Lib Dems. However, with 121 seats, the Tories remain the opposition party, with 23.7 per cent of votes.
Brexit voters flocked back to Reform, with four million votes, 14 per cent of the total, but only five seats. The Greens got 7% of the vote and only four seats.
Both parties are understandably miffed and like all minority parties are calling for electoral reform. The Lib Dems are delighted, with 12 per cent of votes cast (less than Reform and almost half what they achieved under Nick Clegg in 2010) and 11 per cent of seats.
What should we be looking out for?
Labour are entering their honeymoon period. Their team is inexperienced, but energetic and currently riding on the high of power. They probably have six months to deliver some real results before the carping starts.
Low hanging fruit includes doing a deal with the doctors (working out how to pay for it later) and delighting the left by imposing taxes on private schools.
They intend to quickly change Green Belt policy, and impose higher building targets, secure in the knowledge that the shires don’t vote for them, so the Tories/Lib Dems/Greens can protest all they like, the overflow from London and the big cities is going their way. Buy shares in concrete, property development and builders!!!
Longer term they are entering into negotiations with Europe to try to recreate Britain’s previous relationship with the EU. This will be worth watching as Europe moves ever rightwards and Eurosceptic.
It’s like trying to re-join a club whose members don’t like you and are all thinking of leaving anyway.
But what about the NHS and immigration?
On the NHS, they have declared it broken. No shit Sherlock. The NHS (or more accurately the Global Health Service) has been broken for decades. What will Streeting do? Will he sort out the NHS, or will the vast black hole that sucks in money and spits out poor health outcomes, sort him out?
On immigration, will Labour, like the Tories, be wedded to a constant stream of cheap labour and ‘students’ who prop up the ailing, bloated universities? Will it accept high immigration and concrete over the south east to house the millions coming in? Are they praying for bad weather during the summer, to stem the expected flood of small boats?
What about the Tories? Will they show common sense and regroup or engage in a protracted period of blood letting? Will the Lib Dems struggle to protest against Labour, a party just marginally to their right, who handed them their victories in the south east, and who will ignore them? For real protest, look short term at either end of the political spectrum to Reform and the Greens who were supported by one in five people. Expect fireworks!!! Especially from showman Farage.
